Gryzlov has three variants. If United Russia wins the overwhelming majority of seats in the State Duma he may take the post of the speaker of the lower house, replacing Gennady Seleznyov. According to Gazeta.Ru sources in the State Duma such an outcome is 95 per cent likely, Seleznyov’s chances to retain the speaker’s post are practically non-existent. . In line with another theory, Gryzlov may become the Prime Minister, succeeding Mikhail Kasyanov who in March next year is to tender in his resignation. And finally, there is one more possible scenario: nothing will change in the minister’s life after the polls and he will keep his post.
This may happen if the “main bear” (the bear is the symbol of Gryzlov’s party) fails to secure the majority of votes in the house and the President decides that Gryzlov would be of more use in his previous post. However, the latter variant is least likely: Boris Gryzlov has in fact accomplished his main task – reforming the agency, while the new head of the ministry would be facing different goals.
Along with Gryzlov a number of his close associates are expected to leave the ministry. In particular, his deputy Vladimir Vasilyev has already announced his plans to try his hand in politics and to abandon his post in the Interior Ministry.
As regards the key figures of the ministry, most likely they will retain their posts (during his tenure as the Interior Minister Gryzlov has never formed his own team, that is why there is really no-one who could follow him if he goes).
The main confirmation of the reports that Gryzlov would leave his office in Zhitnaya Street [where the Interior Ministry headquarters is situated], are the words of informed sources of Gazeta.Ru in the Kremlin administration.
According to Gazeta.Ru interlocutors, the Kremlin administration has already drawn up a list of the 20 most likely successors to Gryzlov to be presented to the President shortly.
The sources refused to name all the candidates on the list but noted that it does not include Rashid Nurgaliyev, the incumbent deputy minister in charge of the Interior Ministry’s criminal police service – the main unit, comprising, in particular, the criminal investigation directorate and the directorate for combating organized crime.
Nurgaliyev has long been named one of the likeliest successors to Gryzlov, but the deputy minister publicly rejected the offered post.
Interestingly, among those who may replace Gryzlov, is Alexander Pochinok (the Minister for Labour and Social Policy, formerly the head of the Ministry for Taxes and Levies). Yet, his candidacy scarcely may be considered seriously.
According to Gazeta.Ru sources, only two contenders on the list have real chances to take the high post.
Those are the Moscow police chief Vladimir Pronin and General Konstantin Romodanovsky, the head of the Interior Ministry’s internal security directorate. In the two years of being chairman of the Moscow main police directorate, Vladimir Pronin has managed to improve the city police performance and win authority among his subordinates. Besides, he has proved to be a highly flexible figure, capable of making compromises with federal officials. Pronin is a very convenient choice for the Kremlin, as he will manage to pursue the course of the presidential administration not to the prejudice of the professional interests of the police agency (something Gryzlov could not always achieve).
But the most likely candidate to the post is General Konstantin Romodanovsky, known for his fight against “werewolves wearing epaulets”.
Former deputy chief of the USSR KGB internal security directorate and colleague of Vladimir Putin, presently Romodanovsky is at the helm of the ministry’s fight against corruption in its own ranks. The general heads the main internal security directorate (GUSB) of the Interior Ministry. Formally, Romodanovsky is still the FSB employee, temporarily assigned to the police agency.
Romodanovsky was appointed GUSB chief in May 2001. It was rumoured that Putin had appointed the general to the post personally. Together with Boris Gryzlov, Romodanovsky began purging the ministry of the so-called ‘werewolves’.
If the president decides that the main task of the Interior Ministry next year must become the fight against corruption and restoration of people’s confidence in police, Romodanovsky has high chances of taking the post, even more so as the general enjoys authority in the FSB, where he is considered an intellectual and a good analyst.
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